10×
The S&P 500 over 8 years
Best strategy $100K $1.68M
Predictive market regime
Same S&P 500.10× the return.
Exent Regime tells you when to hold the S&P 500 and when to step aside. Over 8 years, it turned $100,000 into $1.68 million. S&P 500 buy & hold made $251,000.
Same $100k invested.Totally different outcomes.
Everyone owns the same index. The difference is knowing when to hold it, and when to step aside. That's what Exent Regime does.
S&P 500 with Exent Regime
$0
+0.0%
S&P 500 buy & hold
$0
+0.0%
8 years.Same index.10x return difference.
Year by year annual returns
-12.5%
+3.3%
2018
Excess return+15.8%
Time spent in each regime
Risk ON5.5%
Neutral22%
Risk OFF72.5%
+28.8%
20182019202020212022202320242025
2025
Exent
+31.9%
S&P 500
+16.4%
2024
Exent
+58.2%
S&P 500
+23.3%
Exent Regime was ahead of the S&P 500 in all 8/8 years (including both years the index fell). Worst year: +3.3% vs. the S&P 500: −19.5%.
One regime, multiple risk profiles
Scroll to see all metrics
| Strategy | Total Return | CAGR | Ann. Vol | Sharpe | Max DD | Calmar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 buy & hold | +151.3% | 12.3% | 15.8% | 0.50 | -34.1% | 0.36 |
S&P 500 with Exent Regime (2x Graduated)Exent (2x Graduated) | +1,577.8% | 42.1% | 16.6% | 2.39 | -19.9% | 2.12 |
S&P 500 with Exent Regime (Graduated)Exent (Graduated) | +520.5% | 25.6% | 9.4% | 2.04 | -10.3% | 2.49 |
S&P 500 with Exent Regime (2x Risk ON)Exent (2x Risk ON) | +884.9% | 33.2% | 13.7% | 1.98 | -13.4% | 2.48 |
S&P 500 with Exent Regime (Risk ON)Exent (Risk ON) | +318.6% | 19.6% | 7.1% | 1.71 | -6.8% | 2.88 |
S&P 500 with Exent Regime (Avoid Risk OFF)Exent (Avoid Risk OFF) | +462.0% | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.81 | -21.6% | 1.11 |
~93.5%
Risk ON / Risk OFF call accuracy
31 episodes since 2018
2.39
Sharpe ratio
vs 0.50 for the S&P 500
Downside protection
Returns get most attention, but protection is key.
The hard question isn't what you make in the good years. It's what you keep in the bad ones.
Worst peak-to-bottom drop
When the S&P 500 fell roughly 25% through 2022, the model had already shifted to Risk OFF, watching the crash from the sidelines instead of riding it down.
S&P 500 buy & hold−34.1%
Rode the crash all the way down.
The engine behind
Built with millions of macro data points. Not opinions.
No narratives, no gut calls. The model distills thousands of proprietary data feeds into one 0–100 score: carry risk, or protect capital.
Beating the market isn't hard because you lack information.It's hard because we are humans.
The market doesn't beat most people with bad data. It distracts them with noise, FOMO and fear.
Do these sound familiar?
Every newsletter says something different. The more I read, the less I know what to do.
One score replaces fifty open tabs.
Your weekend stays yours.
By the time everyone was talking about the rally, I bought in. That was the top.
The signal turns Risk ON before the headlines do.
I sold in the drop just to stop the bleeding, and then missed the entire recovery.
You exit on data, not fear — and the signal tells you when to come back.
I've been holding cash, waiting for the right moment. It's been two years.
There's always a clear answer: in, or out.
No more waiting for a feeling.
Knowing the market moves in regimes was never the hard part. Acting without emotion, every time, is. That's the job the Exent regime does.
Recognized by leading financial names.
Customer success stories
Trusted by 300+ self-directed investors.
Michael L.
62, Retired Business Owner
Michael reduced equity exposure after the model switched to Risk OFF during the March 2026 correction, then re-entered once conditions improved.
“I retired five years ago and my portfolio now has one job, produce income without exposing us to unnecessary risk. During the recent correction everyone was talking about Iran, tariffs and whether another bear market had started. At the same time the S&P 500 was near all-time highs. Without the model I honestly wouldn't have known what to do. The Risk OFF signal gave me confidence to reduce exposure, and when conditions improved I simply followed it back in. I made one decision instead of twenty emotional ones.”
David R.
51, Orthopedic Surgeon
David switched from Buy & Hold after comparing the model's historical 19.9% maximum drawdown with the S&P 500's 34.1%.
“I've spent my career making decisions based on probabilities, not opinions. What convinced me wasn't the return, it was the drawdown. Losing 20% and losing 34% are completely different experiences when retirement isn't far away. The historical data was objective, easy to understand and exactly what I was looking for.”
James P.
63, Retired CPA
James followed the November 2022 Risk ON signal instead of waiting for economists to declare the bear market over.
“I remember thinking the market couldn't possibly be ready to recover. Every financial channel was still predicting another decline. The system wasn't trying to predict anything, it simply identified that market conditions had shifted. Looking back, staying invested after that signal made a much bigger difference than trying to guess the exact bottom ever could.”
Robert M.
64, Manufacturing Business Owner
Robert adopted the Graduated model after realizing protecting capital creates stronger long-term compounding.
“For years I focused almost entirely on returns. Then I saw the explanation showing why avoiding large losses is actually more important than catching every rally. Losing 50% requires a 100% gain just to recover. That simple chart completely changed my investment philosophy.”
Thomas W.
52, Civil Engineer
Thomas stopped following financial news every day and now simply monitors market regime changes.
“I used to spend hours reading market commentary. Inflation. AI. Elections. Wars. Every expert had a different opinion. Now I only ask one question: Is this a Risk ON, Neutral or Risk OFF market? That's become my investment process.”
Mark & Jennifer S.
63 & 61, Retired Couple
Mark and Jennifer replaced daily financial news with one shared investment process.
“Mark: I wanted to reduce risk. Jennifer: I wanted to stop talking about markets every evening. We simply check whether the model is Risk ON, Neutral or Risk OFF. There are no arguments anymore about what CNBC or Bloomberg said that day. It's probably the calmest we've ever felt managing our retirement savings together.”
Own the same index. Change the outcome.
Your money stays yours, Exent Regime just tells you when to act. Start today.
Monthly
$99first month
Then $297/month. Cancel anytime.
- Live macro regime alerts
- Full performance dashboard
- Portfolio-fit analysis
YearlySave 30%
$2,499per year
≈ $208/month, billed annually.
- Everything in Monthly, included
- Save 30% vs. paying monthly
- Priority onboarding & support
Still not sure? Book a call.
See Exent Macro Regime in action. We'll provide a personalized walkthrough and discuss how it applies to your portfolio.
What you are looking at
Exent Macro Regime, in plain words
Exent Regime Score (KAMBO) is a temperature reading for the market.
Every day it reads the same conditions the big institutions read — how much money is flowing through the system, how stressed the credit markets are, where we sit in the economic cycle, what mood investors are in — and compresses all of that into one score.
The Exent Macro Regime is the weather forecast built from that score.
A forecast cannot stop the rain.
It tells you when to take the umbrella, and when the sky is clear enough to leave it home.
KAMBO's score sorts into three regimes:
Risk On
Conditions support stocks. Stay invested.
Neutral
Mixed signals. Reduce exposure, do not panic.
Risk Off
Conditions are deteriorating. Stand aside.
Two things KAMBO is not.
It does not pick stocks.
And it does not predict tomorrow's prices.
It tells you what kind of market you are standing in, so the market stops deciding that for you.
The record
The calls that mattered, and what each one was worth
Every green and red zone on the chart above is a call.
These are the big ones.
The red rows are declines it stood aside from.
The green rows are runs it stayed invested for.
| When | The call | What happened next | With Exent | With 2x Exent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 COVID crash | Risk Off | The fastest bear market in history. The S&P 500 collapsed as the world shut down. | -30.6% avoided | -55% avoided |
| May 2020 The recovery | Risk On | Re-entered while most investors were still hiding. The rebound ran for months. | +22.8% in 6 months | +45% |
| Nov 2020 The confirmation | Risk On | Vaccine news, liquidity flowing, all four pillars aligned. One of the strongest readings on record. | +27.9% in 6 months | +59% |
| Dec 2021 The top | Risk Off | Turned defensive with the index near its all time high. The 2022 bear market followed. | -23.5% avoided | -43% avoided |
| Aug 2022 The trap | A 17 percent summer rally had headlines calling the bottom. KAMBO never confirmed. The rally failed. | -16.8% avoided | -32% avoided | |
| Nov 2022 The re-entry | Risk On | Turned green at 3,993, within weeks of the actual bear market low. The index trades above 7,400 today. | +87% since the signal | +224% |
| Nov 2023 The green light | Risk On | Confirmed conditions ahead of the strongest stretch of the decade and held green for four months straight. | +14.8% while green | +31% |
| Mar 2026 The latest | Risk Off | Turned defensive near the February highs. The index fell for four straight weeks, then KAMBO re-entered for the recovery to new highs. | -7.8% avoided | -15% avoided |
Feb 2020COVID crash
Risk OffThe fastest bear market in history. The S&P 500 collapsed as the world shut down.
- With Exent
- -30.6% avoided
- With 2x Exent
- -55% avoided
May 2020The recovery
Risk OnRe-entered while most investors were still hiding. The rebound ran for months.
- With Exent
- +22.8% in 6 months
- With 2x Exent
- +45%
Nov 2020The confirmation
Risk OnVaccine news, liquidity flowing, all four pillars aligned. One of the strongest readings on record.
- With Exent
- +27.9% in 6 months
- With 2x Exent
- +59%
Dec 2021The top
Risk OffTurned defensive with the index near its all time high. The 2022 bear market followed.
- With Exent
- -23.5% avoided
- With 2x Exent
- -43% avoided
Aug 2022The trap
A 17 percent summer rally had headlines calling the bottom. KAMBO never confirmed. The rally failed.
- With Exent
- -16.8% avoided
- With 2x Exent
- -32% avoided
Nov 2022The re-entry
Risk OnTurned green at 3,993, within weeks of the actual bear market low. The index trades above 7,400 today.
- With Exent
- +87% since the signal
- With 2x Exent
- +224%
Nov 2023The green light
Risk OnConfirmed conditions ahead of the strongest stretch of the decade and held green for four months straight.
- With Exent
- +14.8% while green
- With 2x Exent
- +31%
Mar 2026The latest
Risk OffTurned defensive near the February highs. The index fell for four straight weeks, then KAMBO re-entered for the recovery to new highs.
- With Exent
- -7.8% avoided
- With 2x Exent
- -15% avoided
For the record, it is not perfect.
The initial COVID drop and the April 2025 tariff shock hit faster than macro data moves, and KAMBO adjusted within days rather than in advance.
It reads the temperature. It does not predict lightning.
The value shown above came from every slow moving storm of the last eight years, which is where the real money is lost.
The multiplier
Why the worth column understates it
Two forces make these calls worth more than the numbers first suggest.
First, losses are not symmetric.
Think of a drawdown as a hole.
Fall 30 percent and you need 43 percent just to climb back to the surface.
Fall 50 percent and you need 100 percent.
Every decline KAMBO stood aside from means you climb out of no hole at all, and compound from a higher base into the next recovery.
That is where the long-term gap really comes from — not the winning trades.
Second, a managed downside changes what upside you can afford.
Leverage on its own is how accounts die.
The red rows in the 2x column show why: a leveraged investor with no exit signal would have taken a 55 percent hit in COVID and a 43 percent hit in 2022.
But with the exits handled, some investors choose to run a 2x index fund during Risk On only.
Same signal, doubled moves — and they are standing aside for exactly the periods that destroy leveraged accounts.
The Nov 2022 row shows what that looks like when a real bull market follows: 87 percent becomes roughly 224.
That is the quiet logic behind the whole system.
The defense is not the opposite of the offense. The defense is what pays for it.
Your move
How people actually use it
No screens to learn.
No charts to read.
The regime changes, you make one adjustment.
These are the five KAMBO models available in Market Intelligence, from most conservative to most aggressive.
1
Exent Macro Regime | Risk ON
+318.6% over 8YThe simplest version. You are either fully invested or fully in cash — nothing in between.
Risk On100%
Neutral0%
Risk Off0%
Best for investors who want maximum protection and are comfortable sitting out extended stretches in cash.
2
Exent Macro Regime | Avoid Risk OFF
+462.0% over 8YYou stay invested through the choppy Neutral periods and only step aside once conditions are confirmed deteriorating.
Risk On100%
Neutral100%
Risk Off0%
Best for investors who want to capture most of the cycle and only dodge confirmed downturns.
3
Exent Macro Regime | Graduated
+520.5% over 8YInstead of an on/off switch, exposure is dialed up and down with the regime, smoothing the ride.
Risk On100%
Neutral50%
Risk Off0%
Best for investors who want a smoother ride than an all-or-nothing switch, without predicting anything themselves.
4
Exent Macro Regime | 2x Leveraged Risk ON
+884.9% over 8YFor the aggressive slice of a portfolio only. Leverage is applied only when the regime confirms Risk On — the exits are what make the leverage survivable.
Risk On200%
Neutral0%
Risk Off0%
Best for experienced investors who understand leveraged funds and size this as a slice, never the whole portfolio. Doubled moves cut both ways.
5
Exent Macro Regime | 2x Graduated
+1,577.8% over 8YFlagshipThe flagship model. Leverage compounds through Risk On, full exposure carries through Neutral, and cash protects through Risk Off.
Risk On200%
Neutral100%
Risk Off0%
Best for investors who want the highest historical returns of the five models and can tolerate the added volatility of leverage.
Figures reference the historical chart above. Declines avoided show the market's maximum drawdown following a Risk Off reading, assuming an investor stood aside for that period. Gains captured show the market's return during or following the stated Risk On reading. Figures in the With 2x column are simulated by compounding two times the S&P 500's daily return over the same window, before fund fees, financing costs, and taxes, which is an approximation of how daily reset leveraged index funds behave. Leveraged funds amplify losses as well as gains and can lose value in sideways markets even when the index is flat. All figures describe index moves during signal periods, not the performance of any account, and assume signals were followed as shown. Past performance does not guarantee future results. KAMBO is a research signal that measures macro conditions, which the Exent Macro Regime classifies into Risk On, Neutral, and Risk Off. It does not predict prices and does not recommend individual securities. Nothing on this page is financial advice. Exent is not a registered investment advisor.
Frequently asked questions
